Numbers tell stories if you know where to look. We translate data into actionable understanding.
Opinions are cheap. Our approach starts with the numbers and lets conclusions follow.
Price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and cyclically adjusted measures help gauge whether markets are expensive or offering bargains. We publish quarterly snapshots comparing SA valuations to historical averages and global peers.
Understanding how different assets move together — or apart — is crucial for genuine diversification. Our correlation matrices show which holdings actually provide protection and which just look different on paper.
Global forces collide with local realities to create a unique investing environment.
The South African Reserve Bank juggles inflation targeting with growth concerns. When rates rise, bonds become more attractive and equity valuations compress. When rates fall, risk assets often rally — but the rand can weaken, introducing a different set of trade-offs.
Historically, SA rates have run several percentage points above developed markets to compensate for higher inflation and currency risk. That premium creates opportunities for fixed-income investors willing to accept rand exposure.
The rand is among the most volatile major currencies, swinging on commodity prices, global risk appetite, and domestic politics. For local investors, this volatility is a double-edged sword: offshore assets can turbocharge returns when the rand weakens but eat into gains when it strengthens.
We analyse real effective exchange rates and purchasing-power parity to assess whether the rand is "cheap" or "expensive" at any given moment — useful context when deciding how much to allocate offshore.
South Africa's debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed sharply, raising questions about long-term fiscal sustainability. Credit-rating agencies watch closely, and downgrades historically coincide with currency weakness and higher borrowing costs.
We track budget deficits, debt service costs, and state-owned enterprise liabilities to give readers a clearer picture of the fiscal trajectory — and what it means for bond investors and taxpayers alike.
South Africa sits on vast mineral reserves, and commodity prices ripple through the economy, currency, and stock market. When gold rallies, miners often outperform; when platinum lags, a significant slice of JSE market cap suffers.
We monitor global supply-demand balances, Chinese industrial activity, and green-energy demand for battery metals to anticipate where commodity winds might blow next.
Transparency about how we reach conclusions matters as much as the conclusions themselves.
Markets tend to oscillate around long-term averages. When valuations stretch far above historical norms, future returns often disappoint; when they fall below, opportunity knocks. We compare current metrics to 10- and 20-year averages to gauge where we sit in the cycle.
This does not predict timing — markets can stay "expensive" or "cheap" for years — but it sets realistic expectations and highlights asymmetries in risk versus reward.
Rather than pretending to know the future, we build multiple scenarios — optimistic, base case, and pessimistic — and stress-test portfolios against each. This reveals which holdings might collapse under adverse conditions and which offer resilience.
For South African investors, scenarios often hinge on rand movements, commodity prices, and load-shedding trajectories. We run each through our models to show potential outcomes.
Peak-to-trough declines reveal how painful an investment can get. We calculate maximum drawdowns for various asset classes and time periods, helping readers understand worst-case scenarios before they happen — not after.
A fund that returns 10% annually sounds great until you learn it once fell 45%. Knowing this upfront lets you decide if you can stomach the ride.
Returns come from somewhere. Factor analysis breaks down performance into components — market beta, value, momentum, size, quality — so you can see what is actually driving results. Sometimes "skill" turns out to be just leveraged exposure to a single factor.
Understanding factors helps you avoid unintentional concentration and build portfolios with deliberate, diversified exposures.